MarketsMovies & TV
Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN24 optionsResearch 13h ago
The Odyssey 49%You Can See Everything 22%La Bola Negra 15%Dune: Part Three 9%
24 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
24 options trading, by chance. +3 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
The Odyssey49%47%−2
You Can See Everything22%15%−7
La Bola Negra15%18%+3
Dune: Part Three9%9%0
Digger4%3%−1
Wild Horse Nine1%3%+2
+18 more options
AI analysts' average · The Odyssey
47%
2 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 4 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
The OdysseyYes jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1leftisrightleftisright: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 · 0
You Can See EverythingNo jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1wolfmoonwolfmoon: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 0 · 2
La Bola NegraYes jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Dune: Part ThreeYes jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Wild Horse NineNo HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
19 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- The Odyssey resolves Yes if it wins Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards (ceremony March 14, 2027; nominations January 21, 2027). If it is not nominated, it resolves No immediately. A tie goes to the nominee whose title comes first alphabetically. If no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.
- Resolution criteria
- The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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