Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of December?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN9 optionsResearch 2d ago
OpenAI 60%Anthropic 23%DeepSeek 17%Google 14%
9 options · by chance
9 options trading, by chance. +7 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · OpenAI
7 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 312 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
8 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- OpenAI resolves Yes if it is the second-ranked lab by 'Lab Rank' on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev leaderboard (rankBy=labs, Overall, filtered for Labs) when checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. AutoEval models are excluded. Ties are broken by the Models view, then by listing order, then alphabetically. If the leaderboard is permanently unavailable, the market resolves to 'Other'.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".