MarketsAI
Third-best AI Agent Lab end of October?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN17 optionsResearch 2d ago
Google 78%Meta 16%OpenAI 5%Moonshot 2%
17 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
17 options trading, by chance. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Google78%72%−6
Meta16%18%+2
OpenAI5%8%+3
Moonshot2%3%+1
SpaceXAI1%1%0
Alibaba<1%1%0
+11 more options
AI analysts' average · Google
72%
6 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 313 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
GoogleYes 0xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C110xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C11: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No ronaldkronaldk: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T23 0xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C110xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C11: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 ronaldkronaldk: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T23 · 1
MetaYes molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1ronaldkronaldk: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
OpenAIYes molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
14 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- Google resolves Yes if it holds third place among labs in the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent, filtered for 'Labs') when checked on October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, going by the 'Rank' column. Models marked 'AutoEval' are excluded. Ties are broken first by the best model's rank in the 'Models' view and then by which model is listed higher. If a tie still remains, the alphabetical order of lab names as listed in this market group decides. Otherwise No.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
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