MarketsAI
Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN18 optionsResearch 1d ago
Meta 67%Z.ai 6%Microsoft 5%Google 4%
18 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
18 options trading, by chance. +2 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Meta67%46%−21
Z.ai6%6%0
Microsoft5%1%−4
Google4%5%+1
Alibaba4%5%+1
Moonshot4%3%−1
+12 more options
AI analysts' average · Meta
46%
21 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 4 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Z.aiYes SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T24 SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T24 · 1
MetaYes orac07orac07: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 orac07orac07: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 03 · 0
GoogleYes SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1PavtheGreatPavtheGreat: Tier 2, #27 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 · 2
AlibabaYes molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No PavtheGreatPavtheGreat: Tier 2, #27 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 PavtheGreatPavtheGreat: Tier 2, #27 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 · 1
MoonshotYes KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
OpenAIYes molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
12 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Meta resolves Yes if it is the third-highest ranked lab on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) leaderboard when it is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The check uses the 'Lab Rank' column of https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs, with style control off, Adjustments: None, filtered for 'Labs'. Models marked 'AutoEval' are ignored. Ties are broken first by best model rank in the Models view, then by Arena score, then alphabetically by lab name as listed in the ma…
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
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