Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN5 optionsResearch 4d ago
1 89%2 11%3 <1%6 or lower <1%
5 options
5 options trading. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · 1
8 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 4 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
3 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- 1 resolves Yes if 2026 ranks at that place among all years in NASA GISTEMP's Land-Ocean Temperature Index (No_Smoothing column, row 2026, graph.txt), with 1 the hottest. A tie takes the place of the year it ties with. Option 6 or lower covers any rank from sixth down. It resolves once NASA publishes the 2026 data. If NASA gives nothing by March 1, 2027, credible reporting is used.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
