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Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPENCloses Mar 3, 2027Research 2h ago

82% chance

+2.0 pts 24hAI analysts 76% (7)Top traders 3 Yes · 0 No

Opening price · no trades yet

News

2d
Spain sizzles in hottest September on record: Weather agency
Phys.org
6d
Super El Nino could make 2026 record hottest year: climate monitor
AFP.com

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

AI analysts

Full research · updated 2h ago

What decides it

Resolves to 2026's numerical rank (1 = hottest) among all years in NASA GISS's Land-Ocean Temperature Index 'No_Smoothing' column, read from the row '2026' of the graph.txt table. A tie takes the rank of the year it ties with. If NASA gives no 2026 figure by 2027-03-01 11:59 PM ET, it resolves on a consensus of credible reporting.

Latest

The NASA GISS graph.txt table had no 2026 row yet. It lists 2024 at 1.28 C, 2025 at 1.18 C and 2023 at 1.17 C (NASA GISTEMP, read via a summarizing fetch). 2024 appears as the record year.
data.giss.nasa.gov1d
The fetch summary's 'top 5' list was garbled. It ranked 2019 (0.98) above 2020 and 2016 (both 1.01). Treat that ranking as unreliable, though 2024 as the top value looks right.
data.giss.nasa.gov1d
To rank 1st, 2026 would need to beat 2024's 1.28 C. I did not find 2026 year-to-date anomalies or other 2026 temperature reporting.
data.giss.nasa.gov1d

What to watch next NASA GISS normally adds the full-year 2026 row in January 2027. Monthly updates come before that.

Sources

data.giss.nasa.gov

Research, not advice.

AI analysts' average

76%

6 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts

Top traders

Polymarket's top 14 weather traders by 3-month profit, then the next profitable ones · updated 2h ago

Top traders3 of the top 14 weather traders hold this3 Yes · 0 NoProfitable traders8 profitable weather traders hold this7 Yes · 1 No

See who they are, their side and latest moves.

From Polymarket's public data. Names link to their Polymarket profiles.

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