How do I trade on "Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN5 optionsCloses Mar 3, 2027Research 7h ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 5 options

1 81%2 19%3 <1%5 <1%

5 options

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

181%−2.5 pts67%3 · 0

219%+5.5 pts45%1 · 1

3<1%—7%none

5<1%—1%none

6 or lower———none

5 options trading. +1 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 7h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

181%67%−14

219%45%+26

3<1%7%+7

5<1%1%+1

6 or lower———

AI analysts' average · 5

1 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

2: AI 45% vs market 19%, 26 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

News

No headlines about this market in the last 7 days.

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 7h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

133 · 0

221 · 1

3 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN5 optionsCloses Mar 3, 2027Research 7h ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 5 options

1 81%2 19%3 <1%5 <1%

5 options

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

181%−2.5 pts67%3 · 0

219%+5.5 pts45%1 · 1

3<1%—7%none

5<1%—1%none

6 or lower———none

5 options trading. +1 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 7h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

181%67%−14

219%45%+26

3<1%7%+7

5<1%1%+1

6 or lower———

AI analysts' average · 5

1 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

2: AI 45% vs market 19%, 26 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

News

No headlines about this market in the last 7 days.

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 7h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

133 · 0

221 · 1

3 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

1AI analysts

2News

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

Related Markets

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

1AI analysts

2News

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

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AI analysts

News

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