MarketsAI
Which company has #1 AI model end of October? (Style Control On)
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN20 optionsResearch 2d ago
Google 94%Anthropic 3%OpenAI 2%Moonshot <1%
20 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
20 options trading, by chance. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Google94%87%−7
Anthropic3%18%+15
OpenAI2%2%0
Moonshot<1%1%0
Alibaba<1%1%+1
Z.ai<1%1%+1
+14 more options
AI analysts' average · Google
87%
7 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 2 level, 0 price closer, on 313–394 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
GoogleYes KiruaTradingKiruaTrading: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 5 KiruaTradingKiruaTrading: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 05 · 0
AnthropicYes HerrieDavisHerrieDavis: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No KiruaTradingKiruaTrading: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 HerrieDavisHerrieDavis: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 KiruaTradingKiruaTrading: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 · 1
18 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- The market resolves Yes for the company that owns the top-ranked model on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard, with Style Control on and filtered for 'Models', checked October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Models marked 'AutoEval' are excluded. Ties on rank are broken by unrounded Arena score, then alphabetically by company name. If the leaderboard is unavailable, the market stays open until the first available check.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
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