How do I trade on "Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN10 levels openCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 6d ago

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Somaliland 13%Jordan 8%Syria 7%Qatar 6%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

10 levels open · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Somaliland13%+1.0 pts12%0 · 1

Jordan8%—5%none

Syria7%+0.1 pts5%none

Qatar6%−0.4 pts2%none

Kuwait6%+0.5 pts2%none

Pakistan5%−0.2 pts2%none

Oman5%−0.4 pts2%none

Lebanon5%—4%none

Azerbaijan4%—5%none

Egypt4%—2%none

10 options trading, by chance.

AI analysts

4 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 6d ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Somaliland13%12%−1

Jordan8%5%−3

Syria7%5%−2

Qatar6%2%−4

Kuwait6%2%−4

Pakistan5%2%−3

+4 more options

AI analysts' average · Somaliland

12%

1 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Track record

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

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News

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Polymarket's geopolitics traders by 3-month profit · updated 3m ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

SomalilandNo M2sx92kljs42 T101 M2sx92kljs42 T10 · 1

9 options: no ranked trader holds them

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 10 options

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In plain English: Yes if Somaliland formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework by Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, publicly acknowledged by both governments and attributed to the Accords. Otherwise No.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.

How markets resolve