MarketsMovies & TV
Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN5 optionsResearch 6d ago
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 58%Avengers: Doomsday 40%
5 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
5 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Spider-Man: Brand New Day58%54%−4
Avengers: Doomsday40%46%+6
Toy Story 5———
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping———
Dune: Messiah———
AI analysts' average · Spider-Man: Brand New Day
54%
4 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Spider-Man: Brand New DayYes New.JeansNew.Jeans: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 New.JeansNew.Jeans: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1protagonistprotagonist: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 03 · 0
Avengers: DoomsdayNo protagonistprotagonist: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 protagonistprotagonist: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1buoysbuoys: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 0 · 2
3 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if Spider-Man: Brand New Day has the second-highest 3-day domestic opening weekend of any 2026 film, using final (not estimated) The Numbers figures. It resolves No otherwise. Ties go to alphabetical order. A 4- or 5-day opening is judged on its Friday–Sunday gross only.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
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