Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN12 levels openResearch 31m ago
Likud 65%Yisrael Beiteinu 56%Yashar 47%Together 44%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
12 levels open · by chance
12 options trading, by chance. +3 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · Likud
22 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 2 level, 0 price closer, on 359–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
12 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if Likud provides at least one Minister (including the Prime Minister) in the first government that wins the Knesset's confidence vote after the October 27, 2026 election. Parties that only support the government without a ministerial post do not count. No government formed, or results not definitive by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, resolves No.
- Watch out
- Only a party holding at least one ministerial post, including the Prime Minister, in the first government that wins a Knesset confidence vote counts. Confidence-and-supply or outside support does not.
- Resolution criteria
- Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
