Who will launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN4 levels openResearch 1d ago
Anthropic 97%Microsoft 42%Perplexity 23%Amazon 11%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
4 levels open · in level order
4 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · Microsoft
4 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 312 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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4 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- Microsoft resolves Yes if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, it launches a Muse-like personal agent. That is an AI agent on a cloud computer the company provides, dedicated to one user and kept assigned to them between tasks. It must be able to start tasks on its own (on a schedule or when an email arrives) and act on websites or in connected accounts (sending email, submitting forms). Per-task or per-session environments don't count. Single-task products, API-only products and business-only p…
- Resolution criteria
- On September 8, 2026, Meta launched Muse, a personal AI agent that runs on a cloud computer dedicated to each user and carries out tasks, such as sending email and booking travel (https://about.fb.com/news/2026/09/introducing-muse-personal-ai-agent/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company launches a Muse-like personal agent by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Muse-like personal agent is an AI agent that runs on a cloud computer provided by the listed company that is dedicated to the individual user and remains assigned to that user between tasks, can begin tasks on its own, such as on a schedule or when a new email arrives, and can take actions on websites or in the user's connected accounts, such as sending email or submitting forms. Computing environments created for each task or session will not qualify. Products limited to a single type of task, such as coding, software development, email, or travel booking, offered only through an API, or sold only to businesses will not qualify. A Muse-like personal agent must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. Availability limited to paid subscription plans or to certain countries will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
