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Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Event finished17 optionsResearch 9h ago

Polymarket chance · top 4 of 17 options

Benjamin Netanyahu 75%Gadi Eizenkot 24%Naftali Bennett <1%Yair Lapid <1%

17 options · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Benjamin Netanyahu75%+46.0 pts47%none
Gadi Eizenkot24%−45.5 pts46%none
Naftali Bennett<1%−2.4 pts1%none
Yair Lapid<1%—1%none
Benny Gantz<1%—1%none
Yossi Cohen<1%−0.1 pts1%none
Yair Golan<1%—1%none
Itamar Ben Gvir<1%—1%none
Gideon Sa’ar<1%−0.1 pts1%none
Yariv Levin<1%−0.1 pts1%none
Ayelet Shaked<1%—1%none
Yoaz Hendel<1%—1%none
Nir Barkat<1%−0.1 pts1%none
Amir Ohana<1%−0.1 pts1%none
Gilad Erdan<1%−0.2 pts1%none
Ofer Winter<1%—1%none
Moshe Feiglin———none

17 options trading, by chance. +2 more on Polymarket

AI analysts

4 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 9h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Benjamin Netanyahu75%47%−28
Gadi Eizenkot24%46%+22
Naftali Bennett<1%1%+1
Yair Lapid<1%1%+1
Benny Gantz<1%1%+1
Yossi Cohen<1%1%+1
+11 more options

AI analysts' average · Benjamin Netanyahu

47%

28 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts

Track record

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

News

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Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 5h ago
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

17 options: no ranked trader holds them

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 17 options

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In plain English
Benjamin Netanyahu resolves Yes if they are the first person formally tasked by Israel's President with forming a government after the 2026 election. Recommendations to the President and his consultations do not count. If no one is tasked by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, it resolves 'Other'.
Resolution criteria
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked with forming a government after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally tasked with forming a government by the President of Israel. Recommendations made to the President by parties or members of the Knesset, and the President's consultations, will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How markets resolve
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