MarketsAI
Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN7 levels openResearch 1d ago
Saudi Arabia 33%China 5%Meta 5%Russia 4%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
7 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
7 options trading, by chance. +3 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Saudi Arabia33%23%−10
China5%3%−2
Meta5%3%−2
Russia4%2%−2
Iran3%2%−1
Google3%2%−1
+1 more option
AI analysts' average · Saudi Arabia
23%
10 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 4 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Saudi ArabiaNo melonmanmmelonmanm: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 melonmanmmelonmanm: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
RussiaNo melonmanmmelonmanm: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 melonmanmmelonmanm: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
IranNo melonmanmmelonmanm: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 melonmanmmelonmanm: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
GoogleNo melonmanmmelonmanm: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 melonmanmmelonmanm: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
3 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if the US government or OpenAI officially alleges, by December 31, 2026, that Alfozan acted on behalf of Saudi Arabia (its government, intelligence services or a state-affiliated entity). His Saudi nationality alone does not count. Otherwise No.
- Resolution criteria
- On October 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that Abdulrahman Alfozan, an OpenAI employee and Saudi national, had been arrested and charged after allegedly installing a covert audio recording device in an executive conference room at OpenAI's San Francisco offices (see: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/saudi-national-arrested-installing-surreptitious-audio-recording-device-openai). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. federal government or OpenAI publicly alleges that Abdulrahman Alfozan acted on behalf of the listed entity in connection with this incident between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For listed countries, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the government of the listed country, its intelligence or security services, or a state-affiliated entity of the listed country. Alfozan's nationality alone will not qualify. For listed companies or individuals, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the listed company, its subsidiaries, or the listed individual. A qualifying allegation must definitively state that Alfozan acted on behalf of, or under the direction, control, or sponsorship of, the listed entity. Statements that merely speculate about or suggest possible ties, or that describe only contact, cooperation, or association with the listed entity, will not qualify. Qualifying allegations include charging documents, court filings, and on-the-record statements by the U.S. Department of Justice, the FBI, or other U.S. federal agencies or their authorized representatives acting in an official capacity, as well as official statements by OpenAI. Once a qualifying allegation has been made, no subsequent retraction will be relevant for purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and OpenAI.
Sign in to comment
