How do I trade on "Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN2 optionsCloses Nov 5, 2026Research 8d ago

Polymarket chance · top 2 of 2 options

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 67%No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate 32%

2 options · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate67%+1.4 pts65%none

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate32%−1.6 pts31%1 · 1

2 options trading, by chance. +2 more on Polymarket

AI analysts

3 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 8d ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate67%65%−2

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate32%31%−1

AI analysts' average · No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate

65%

2 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts

Track record

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

News

1d
Senate Democrats to investigate Trump’s oil profits amid rising gas prices
Crypto Briefing
4d
Trump claims US controls Strait of Hormuz, attacks Democrats ahead of midterms
YouTube

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R SenateYes anoin123 T1 No paddaa T21 anoin123 T11 paddaa T21 · 1

1 option: no ranked trader holds it

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 2 options

Show rulesHide rules

In plain English: The rules are in an external PDF that I did not read. From the title, it probably resolves Yes only if both parts hold: (a) there is no Hormuz agreement by Oct 23 OR oil is at least $80, and (b) Democrats win the Senate. Check the exact definitions in the PDF.
Resolution criteria: The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.

How markets resolve