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Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN2 optionsCloses Nov 5, 2026Research 5h ago

Polymarket price · top 2 of 2 options

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate 67%No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate 32%

2 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate67%+1.2 pts62%none
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate32%+0.4 pts33%1 · 0

2 options trading, by chance. +2 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 5h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate67%62%−5
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate32%33%+1

AI analysts' average · No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate

33%

1 pts above the market · 2 AI analysts

Biggest gap

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate: AI 62% vs market 67%, 5 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's election traders by 3-month profit · updated 5h ago
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate11 · 0

1 option: no ranked trader holds it

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 2 options

Resolution criteria
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

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No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate · Buy YesOption 2 of 2

Polymarket price · live

Yes32¢
No69¢
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Before you decide · No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate

  • News0 today
  • AI analysts33% · 1 pts above
  • Tiers 1–21 Yes · 0 No
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.