How do I trade on "Will Micron Q1 DRAM revenue be above $46B?"?

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Will Micron Q1 DRAM revenue be above __?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN1 level openCloses Dec 24, 2026Research 9d ago

Polymarket chance · the 1 levels nearest 50%

$46B 67%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

1 level open · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

$46B67%−3.0 pts42%none

1 open level, in level order. +4 more on Polymarket

AI analysts

4 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 9d ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

$46B67%42%−25

AI analysts' average · $46B

42%

25 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts

Track record

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

News

9h
Micron Drops 4F² Development to Focus on 3D DRAM : Industry : JKN
재경일보
1d
Micron Picks Its Battles: A DRAM Detour, a $3 Billion Supply Bet and a Taiwan Labor Split
ad-hoc-news.de
1d
Micron Was Late to HBM. Is It Making the Same Mistake With 4F² DRAM?
Dr. Robert Castellano's Semiconductor Deep Dive Newsletter
1d
Micron backs 3D DRAM as Samsung, SK run two-track race amid China push - CHOSUNBIZ
Chosunbiz
1d
Micron Accelerates 3D DRAM From a Fifth Consecutive Node of Process Leadership
The Futurum Group
1d
Micron plans to use wafer bonding and High-NA EUV for next-gen DRAM — company also developing vertical high-bandwidth memory and vertical edge inference memory integrated directly on top of processors
Tom's Hardware
1d
Micron's Week of Hard Choices: A Union Deal in Taichung, a Bonus Overhaul and a Deliberate DRAM Deto
ad-hoc-news.de
2d
Micron's Taiwan Bonus Dispute Back at the Table: If the DRAM Hub Accounting for 22% of Output Wobbles, Samsung and SK Stand to Gain
BigGo Finance
2d
Micron's G11 Roadmap, a Deliberate DRAM Detour and Two Very Different Union Outcomes in Taiwan
ad-hoc-news.de
2d
Micron's Roadmap Comes With a Price Tag: Why the Chipmaker Is Skipping 4F² DRAM and Betting on G11
ad-hoc-news.de
2d
MU, SNDK, DRAM Stocks Advance Premarket: Samsung Reclaims DRAM Lead, Micron Narrows Gap With SK Hynix
Stocktwits
3d
Micron Skips G10 NAND and 4F² DRAM: The Physics Behind Two Decisions | by Noah Bean | Oct, 2026
Medium
3d
Micron's Week of Fine Print: A Union Deal in Taichung, a Strike in Taoyuan, and a DRAM Road Not Take
ad-hoc-news.de
3d
Micron's 2.7% Gain Belongs to the Sector — Its Taiwan Standoff, DRAM Roadmap and Indium Bet Are th
ad-hoc-news.de
4d
Micron's Chip Rally Masks a Messier Reality in Taiwan and the DRAM Lab
ad-hoc-news.de
4d
Micron's vHBM Stacks DRAM on Top of the Processor, With Heat Dissipation the Biggest Hurdle and Mass Production Not Until 2028
BigGo Finance
4d
Micron 4F² DRAM: Why It Chose a Different Path
NeoTeo
4d
Micron Picks Its Battles: A Union Standoff in Taiwan and a Quiet Retreat From 4F² DRAM
AD HOC NEWS
4d
Micron pivots from 4F² to 3D DRAM, differing from rivals Samsung, SK Hynix: Wedbush
Seeking Alpha
5d
Micron explains why it has decided against adopting its next-generation DRAM technology, '4F²,' which it has been researching for 20 years.
GIGAZINE
5d
Micron Walks Away From 4F² DRAM After Two Decades of Research, Bets on 3D DRAM Instead
TechPowerUp
5d
Why Micron Is Suddenly Ditching 4F² DRAM as Rivals Double Down
hothardware.com
5d
Micron's 4F² DRAM decision and density limits
NeoTeo
5d
Micron Technology Has No Plans to Move to Denser Layout of DRAM Memory Cells, Wedbush Says
Moomoo
5d
Micron CTO Downplays New Memory Chip Design as ‘Complex and Costly’ While Chinese Rival CXMT Advances DRAM Technology
Longbridge
5d
Micron Abandons 4F² DRAM After 20 Years of Research: The Company Explained Why
Root-Nation.com
5d
Micron charts a different course on DRAM, Wedbush says
Proactive financial news
5d
Micron opts against 4F² DRAM after decades of research
Mezha.net
5d
Micron pulls the plug on future 4F² DRAM after two decades of research in dramatic shift — company says architecture offers no meaningful density advantages, increases manufacturing complexity and costs, and has fundamental scaling limitations
Tom's Hardware
5d
Micron rules out 4F² DRAM in favor of continued scaling and 3D transition
Bits&Chips
6d
Micron Calls 4F² DRAM a "Myth," Drops Commercialization
Seoul Economic Daily
6d
Micron’s DRAM, HBM4 Push Hits 400-Layer NAND [2026]
https://tech-insider.org/
6d
[News] Micron Reportedly Rules Out 4F² DRAM Scaling, Backs 6F² and 3D DRAM in Next-Gen Memory Roadmap
TrendForce
6d
In response to Changxin's 4F2 breakthrough, Micron CTO states that 3D DRAM is "more scalable and cost-effective in the long term"
富途牛牛
6d
Micron skips 4F² for 3D DRAM as CXMT pushes ahead
digitimes
6d
DRAM 4F²: Samsung, SK Race Ahead as Micron Sticks With 6F² in Head-On Technology Route Clash
BigGo Finance
6d
Micron’s DDR6 Doubles DDR5 Bandwidth While LPDDR6 Delivers 35% Better Power Efficiency, Both Built On Its Upcoming 1δ DRAM Node, vHBM Goes Vertical & G11 NAND Goes Beyond 400 Layers
Wccftech
6d
Micron Technology Maps AI Memory Future With HBM, DRAM and NAND Roadmap
Yahoo Finance
6d
Micron Says Rival DRAM Design Has ‘Fundamental Problems’: Targets Next-Gen Memory With 3D DRAM, New Chips Planned For 2027
Yahoo Finance

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Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 1 options

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In plain English: Resolves Yes if the DRAM revenue Micron reports in its official fiscal Q1 2027 earnings materials is above $46B. Otherwise it resolves No. That includes No if the metric is not reported, or if the materials are not released by 2027-01-31 11:59 PM ET. A reported range is judged at its midpoint.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Micron's DRAM revenue for the first fiscal quarter of 2027, as reported in its official company earnings materials and investor presentation, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Micron's official company earnings materials and investor presentation, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

How markets resolve