Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN2 levels openResearch 14h ago
June 30, 2027 54%December 31 16%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
2 levels open · in level order
2 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · June 30, 2027
17 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if Samuel Alito announces, by the stated date at 11:59 PM ET (December 31, 2026, or June 30, 2027), that he will retire as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court. The announced retirement may take effect immediately, at term end or later, and it counts even if it never takes effect. Official announcements from Alito or his representatives are the source. Otherwise the market resolves No.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
