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Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
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OPENResearch 2h ago
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+1.0 pts 24hAI analysts 30% (5)Top traders 6 Yes · 2 NoAI research
What decides it
Resolves on the change in the upper bound of the federal funds target range in the FOMC statement after the Dec 8-9, 2026 meeting, measured against the level just before that meeting. 'No change' means the upper bound stays where the Oct 27-28 decision leaves it; an October move shifts the baseline, not this market.
Latest
BLS: September CPI rose 0.6% (seasonally adjusted) and 3.7% over 12 months; core CPI rose 2.6% over 12 months; the energy index rose 20.4% over 12 months.
www.bls.govBLS schedules: October jobs report Nov 6, October CPI Nov 10, November jobs report Dec 4; November CPI is not due until Dec 10, after the December decision.
www.bls.gov +1The Fed's calendar lists remaining 2026 meetings on Oct 27-28 and Dec 8-9, with December carrying a Summary of Economic Projections.
www.federalreserve.gov
Case for Yes
Most participants' end-2026 dot (12 of 18 at 4.125%) is one 25 bp hike above today's midpoint; if that hike comes on Oct 28, December starts from the higher level; core CPI was 2.6% over 12 months; September payrolls rose only 29,000.
Case for No
16 of 18 participants project a higher end-2026 rate than today's 3.75-4.00% range, with four seeing two more hikes, and only two meetings remain; headline CPI rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% over 12 months, with energy up 20.4%.
What to watch next The Oct 28 FOMC decision, which sets December's baseline; October jobs (Nov 6) and CPI (Nov 10); November jobs (Dec 4); the Dec 9 statement and projections.
Full research
What decides it
Resolves on the change in the upper bound of the federal funds target range in the FOMC statement after the Dec 8-9, 2026 meeting, measured against the level just before that meeting. 'No change' means the upper bound stays where the Oct 27-28 decision leaves it; an October move shifts the baseline, not this market. A move that is not a multiple of 25 bp rounds up to the next 25. If no statement is issued by the meeting's end, 'No change' wins.
Earlier
BLS: nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 in September and the unemployment rate was 4.2%, both little changed.
www.bls.govThe Fed's open market table records a 25 bp increase to 3.75-4.00% effective Sept 17, 2026; the previous change was a 25 bp cut to 3.50-3.75% on Dec 11, 2025.
www.federalreserve.govThe FOMC raised the target range by 1/4 point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent on a 12-0 vote, saying "Inflation remains elevated."
www.federalreserve.govSeptember projections: 12 of 18 participants put the end-2026 midpoint at 4.125%, 4 at 4.375% and 2 at 3.875% (the current midpoint); the median was 4.1%, with 2026 PCE inflation at 3.7%.
www.federalreserve.gov
Sources
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (Sept 16, 2026) · www.federalreserve.gov
- Federal Reserve: Open Market Operations, policy tools · www.federalreserve.gov
- FOMC Summary of Economic Projections (Sept 16, 2026) · www.federalreserve.gov
- BLS: The Employment Situation, September 2026 · www.bls.gov
- BLS: Consumer Price Index, September 2026 · www.bls.gov
- Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendars · www.federalreserve.gov
- BLS: Employment Situation release schedule · www.bls.gov
- BLS: Consumer Price Index release schedule · www.bls.gov
Research, not advice.
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
