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MarketsMovies & TV

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN22 levels openCloses Jan 21, 2027Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

The Invite 58%I Play Rocky 40%All of a Sudden 38%Fjord 35%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

22 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
The Odyssey97%−0.5 pts90%none
La Bola Negra95%—75%1 · 0
Wild Horse Nine92%—86%none
Dune: Part Three87%−0.5 pts80%none
Project Hail Mary78%−0.5 pts72%0 · 1
The Debut77%+1.5 pts65%none
You Can See Everything72%+1.5 pts27%2 · 0
The Invite58%—53%1 · 2
I Play Rocky40%−4.0 pts32%0 · 1
All of a Sudden38%+2.5 pts35%0 · 1
Fjord35%−1.0 pts37%none
Obsession35%+1.0 pts34%none
Elsinore34%+5.0 pts32%none
Digger20%+1.0 pts17%1 · 0
The Adventures of Cliff Booth19%−0.5 pts20%0 · 1
Behemoth!17%−3.0 pts21%none
Michael11%—11%none
Avengers: Doomsday9%−0.7 pts8%none
Fatherland6%+1.3 pts6%0 · 1
Disclosure Day5%−1.6 pts8%0 · 2
The Social Reckoning4%—22%0 · 1
The Drama3%−0.6 pts2%none

22 options trading, by chance. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
The Odyssey97%90%−7
La Bola Negra95%75%−20
Wild Horse Nine92%86%−6
Dune: Part Three87%80%−7
Project Hail Mary78%72%−6
The Debut77%65%−12
+16 more options

AI analysts' average · The Drama

2%

1 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

You Can See Everything: AI 27% vs market 72%, 45 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

  • 10h
    [Photo] Kim Do-hoon, director of the drama The Final Table
    매일경제
  • 17h
    Best Director Oscars 2027 Contenders & Predictions: Christopher Nolan, Martin McDonagh, Olivia Wilde In The Mix
    The Playlist
  • 1d
    #OscarsSoWhite … again? The post-‘Sinners’ Oscar season falls short on diversity
    Gold Derby
  • 1d
    12 films from major festivals that could define the race for the 2027 Oscars
    Vogue Adria
  • 1d
    Andrew Garfield takes his ‘Artificial’ Oscar campaign to the Santa Barbara Film Festival
    Gold Derby
  • 2d
    Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s Mid-October Charts and Dissection of the Race
    The Hollywood Reporter
  • 3d
    A Post-Film Festival Analysis of the 2027 Oscar Contenders
    Matthew Huff | Substack
  • 3d
    The 10 Best Drama Movies of the Last 75 Years, Ranked
    Collider
  • 3d
    Taylor Swift is Coming for That Oscar Unless Netflix Pulls of a Miracle
    Awards Daily
  • 5d
    Licensable picture: The Drama Premiere - LA
    Reuters Connect
  • 5d
    2027 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE and BEST DIRECTOR (October)
    Awards Watch
  • 6d
    Zendaya + A24 = Oscar? How her upcoming films with Alex Garland and Barry Jenkins could be a path to gold
    Gold Derby
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 1h ago
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
The Invite31 · 2
You Can See Everything22 · 0
Disclosure Day20 · 2
La Bola Negra11 · 0
Project Hail Mary10 · 1
I Play Rocky10 · 1
All of a Sudden10 · 1
Digger11 · 0
The Adventures of Cliff Booth10 · 1
Fatherland10 · 1
The Social Reckoning10 · 1

11 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 22 options

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

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The Drama · Buy YesOption 22 of 22

Polymarket price · live

Yes5¢
No100¢
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Before you decide · The Drama

  • News2 today · latest 10h
  • AI analysts2% · 1 pts below
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.