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MarketsMovies & TV

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN22 levels openCloses Mar 15, 2027Research 2h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

The Invite 58%I Play Rocky 40%All of a Sudden 38%Fjord 35%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

22 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
The Odyssey97%−0.8 pts92%none
La Bola Negra95%—75%1 · 0
Wild Horse Nine92%+0.5 pts86%none
Dune: Part Three87%−0.5 pts80%none
The Debut79%+3.0 pts65%none
Project Hail Mary77%−1.5 pts72%0 · 1
You Can See Everything72%+1.5 pts27%2 · 0
The Invite58%—53%1 · 2
I Play Rocky40%−3.0 pts32%0 · 1
All of a Sudden38%+2.5 pts35%0 · 1
Fjord35%−1.0 pts37%none
Obsession35%+1.0 pts34%none
Elsinore30%−3.0 pts32%none
Digger20%+1.0 pts17%1 · 0
The Adventures of Cliff Booth20%−0.5 pts20%0 · 1
Behemoth!17%−2.5 pts21%none
Michael11%—11%none
Avengers: Doomsday9%−0.4 pts8%none
Fatherland5%+0.5 pts6%0 · 1
Disclosure Day5%−1.8 pts8%0 · 2
The Social Reckoning4%—18%0 · 1
The Drama3%−0.6 pts2%none

22 options trading, by chance. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 2h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
The Odyssey97%92%−5
La Bola Negra95%75%−20
Wild Horse Nine92%86%−6
Dune: Part Three87%80%−7
The Debut79%65%−14
Project Hail Mary77%72%−5
+16 more options

AI analysts' average · The Odyssey

92%

5 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts

Biggest gap

You Can See Everything: AI 27% vs market 72%, 45 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

  • 5h
    Universal Pictures scores its highest annual UK-Ireland box office on record in 2026 with 10 weeks to go
    Screen Daily
  • 18h
    Best Director Oscars 2027 Contenders & Predictions: Christopher Nolan, Martin McDonagh, Olivia Wilde In The Mix
    The Playlist
  • 1d
    #OscarsSoWhite … again? The post-‘Sinners’ Oscar season falls short on diversity
    Gold Derby
  • 1d
    Could Nathan Fielder's You Can See Everything win Best Director and Best Picture over Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey?
    LaineyGossip
  • 1d
    12 films from major festivals that could define the race for the 2027 Oscars
    Vogue Adria
  • 2d
    Andrew Garfield takes his ‘Artificial’ Oscar campaign to the Santa Barbara Film Festival
    Gold Derby
  • 2d
    Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s Mid-October Charts and Dissection of the Race
    The Hollywood Reporter
  • 2d
    ‘You Can See Everything’ rides buzz, box office into Top 10 of Best Picture race
    Gold Derby
  • 3d
    A Post-Film Festival Analysis of the 2027 Oscar Contenders
    Matthew Huff | Substack
  • 3d
    Taylor Swift is Coming for That Oscar Unless Netflix Pulls of a Miracle
    Awards Daily
  • 6d
    2027 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE and BEST DIRECTOR (October)
    Awards Watch
  • 6d
    Zendaya + A24 = Oscar? How her upcoming films with Alex Garland and Barry Jenkins could be a path to gold
    Gold Derby
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
The Invite31 · 2
You Can See Everything22 · 0
Disclosure Day20 · 2
La Bola Negra11 · 0
Project Hail Mary10 · 1
I Play Rocky10 · 1
All of a Sudden10 · 1
Digger11 · 0
The Adventures of Cliff Booth10 · 1
Fatherland10 · 1
The Social Reckoning10 · 1

11 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 22 options

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

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The Odyssey · Buy YesOption 1 of 22

Polymarket price · live

Yes99¢
No5¢
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Before you decide · The Odyssey

  • News2 today · latest 5h
  • AI analysts92% · 5 pts below
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.