MarketsTech
GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN9 levels open3 closedResearch 3d ago
November 15 81%November 13 79%November 11 58%November 9 29%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
9 levels open · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
3 closed levels
9 open levels, in level order. +3 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
November 1581%27%−54
November 3092%49%−43
November 51%——
December 1597%62%−35
November 68%——
December 3198%72%−26
+3 more options
AI analysts' average · November 13
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Your forecast on November 13
Public, on your forecaster record, beside the price now.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
November 15Yes Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 9 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10xef34…0ff60xef34…0ff6: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 9 · 3
November 30Yes Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No troimtroim: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 4 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10x8823210c7f19a81ab66f2d243930a301ba24b80x8823210c7f19a81ab66f2d243930a301ba24b8: Tier 2, #40 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 4 troimtroim: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1viniivinii: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 4 · 4
December 31Yes Parz1vaIParz1vaI: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 Parz1vaIParz1vaI: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T26 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 · 6
December 15Yes Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1dedidancdedidanc: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 3 SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1viniivinii: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 3 · 3
November 13Yes 0x8823210c7f19a81ab66f2d243930a301ba24b80x8823210c7f19a81ab66f2d243930a301ba24b8: Tier 2, #40 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No Liechti0Liechti0: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 0x8823210c7f19a81ab66f2d243930a301ba24b80x8823210c7f19a81ab66f2d243930a301ba24b8: Tier 2, #40 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T24 Liechti0Liechti0: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20xef34…0ff60xef34…0ff6: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 · 4
November 5Yes Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No 0xef34…0ff60xef34…0ff6: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T23 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 0xef34…0ff60xef34…0ff6: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T23 · 1
November 6Yes Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No Liechti0Liechti0: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1brohopbrohop: Tier 2, #19 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 Liechti0Liechti0: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20xef34…0ff60xef34…0ff6: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 · 2
November 9No Liechti0Liechti0: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 Liechti0Liechti0: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20xef34…0ff60xef34…0ff6: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 2
November 11No 0xef34…0ff60xef34…0ff6: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 0xef34…0ff60xef34…0ff6: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and November 13 (ET). The model name or identifier must include 'Astra', for example GPT-6.1 Astra. GPT-6 Astra and its rollouts, Pro, Fast and snapshots do not count. Tier-labeled models (Sol, Terra, Luna), Codex, Cyber, Daybreak, Image and Realtime models do not count. Closed beta or private access does not count. Otherwise No.
- Watch out
- GPT-6 Astra and any rollout, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it do not qualify. Only a model designated 6.1 or higher with 'Astra' in its name, open to the general public, counts.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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