MarketsAI
GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN6 levels openResearch 2h ago
December 15 77%November 30 64%November 15 44%October 31 19%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
6 levels open · in level order
OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
6 open levels, in level order. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
October 238%6%−2
October 3119%21%+2
November 1544%35%−9
November 3064%52%−12
December 1577%68%−9
December 3186%77%−9
AI analysts' average · October 23
6%
2 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts
Biggest gap
November 30: AI 52% vs market 64%, 12 pts below
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
October 31143 · 11
October 2381 · 7
December 3141 · 3
December 1511 · 0
2 options: no ranked trader holds them
Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
