MarketsAI
GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN5 levels open1 closedResearch 2d ago
December 31 84%December 15 77%November 30 62%November 15 31%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
5 levels open · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
1 closed level
5 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
October 3116%19%+3
November 1531%25%−6
November 3062%49%−13
December 1577%62%−15
December 3184%72%−12
AI analysts' average · November 30
49%
13 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 2 level, 0 price closer, on 313–359 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
October 31Yes 0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f80x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f8: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 4 0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f80x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f8: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T24ts3hc4ts3hc: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 8 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1troimtroim: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 4 · 8
December 31Yes Parz1vaIParz1vaI: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 Parz1vaIParz1vaI: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T16F456F7474666A74796F456F7474666A7479: Tier 2, #38 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 4 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 · 4
November 15Yes Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T16F456F7474666A74796F456F7474666A7479: Tier 2, #38 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 3 SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 · 3
November 30Yes Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No troimtroim: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 troimtroim: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 · 2
December 15Yes KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 · 1
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher (for example GPT-6.1 Astra or GPT Astra 7) available to the general public between market creation and November 30 (ET). Open beta or an open rolling waitlist counts. Private or closed access does not. GPT-6 Astra and its rollouts, modes or snapshots do not qualify, and neither do the Sol, Terra, Luna, Codex, Cyber or Image lines. Otherwise the market resolves No.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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