MarketsElections
Next Israeli government formed by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN5 levels openResearch 1d ago
June 30, 2027 84%February 28, 2027 67%December 15, 2026 39%December 31, 2026 33%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
5 levels openin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsBuy
5 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
November 30, 20268%7%−1
December 15, 202639%
December 31, 202633%40%+7
February 28, 202767%64%−3
June 30, 202784%82%−2
AI analysts' average · December 15, 2026
—
Your forecast on December 15, 2026
Public, on your forecaster record, beside the price now.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
November 30, 2026No anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
December 31, 2026No anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
June 30, 2027Yes 101456101456: Tier 2, #48 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 101456101456: Tier 2, #48 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
2 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- December 15, 2026 resolves Yes if a new Government of Israel, headed by a Prime Minister with appointed ministers, is sworn in before the Knesset by that date at 11:59 PM ET. The government must result from the 2026 Knesset election or a later one. Caretaker or transitional governments, including the outgoing government continuing as caretaker, do not count. Otherwise it resolves No.
- Watch out
- Only a government sworn in before the Knesset by the stated date at 11:59 PM ET counts. A caretaker government, including the outgoing one, does not count.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the Knesset within this market's timeframe. Only a government formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or any subsequent election will qualify. Caretaker or transitional governments, including the outgoing government continuing to serve in a caretaker capacity, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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