MarketsElections
Next Israeli Minister of Justice?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN14 optionsResearch 3d ago
No Next Minister by Feb 28 35%Hili Tropper 12%Yair Golan 7%Ofir Katz 6%
14 optionsby chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsBuy
14 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
No Next Minister by Feb 2835%41%+6
Hili Tropper12%11%−1
Yair Golan7%
Ofir Katz6%3%−3
Orit Farkash-Hacohen5%8%+3
Gideon Sa’ar4%2%−2
+8 more options
AI analysts' average · Yair Golan
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Your forecast on Yair Golan
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Yair Golan resolves Yes if Yair Golan is the first person to assume office as Israeli Minister of Justice (or a confirmed successor post with its primary responsibilities) in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections. The Knesset must approve the person in a confidence vote on that government, or in a later vote approving the appointment to it. Interim or caretaker ministers do not count. If no such minister assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, only 'No Next Minister by Feb 28' resolves Yes.
- Watch out
- Only a minister approved by the Knesset in the first post-election government counts, and caretaker or interim ministers do not. If nobody assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, 'No Next Minister by Feb 28' resolves Yes.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Justice in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Justice will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Justice” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Justice are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Justice assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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