MarketsAI
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 4h ago
68% chance
−0.5 pts 24hAI analysts 61% (7)Top traders 9 Yes · 0 NoNews 40 todayNews
- match: Google
- match: Google
- match: Google
- match: Google
- match: Google · AI
- match: Google
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI research
What decides it
Resolves to the company owning the top-ranked model on arena.ai Text Arena Overall (style control off, Models view) on Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. AutoEval models are excluded.
Latest
Search summary (undated, circa Aug–Oct 2026): Claude Fable 5.1 (Anthropic) ranks #1 in a 'Best Overall' view, with Claude Opus 5.5 and GPT 6 Astra also near the top. A Gemini 4 Argon is mentioned as #1 in one 'Text' category and #10 overall. This is unverified and may not match the rule's no-style-…
www.leptidigital.fr +12026-06: A search summary says claude-fable-5 led Text Arena at 1510 ±11, with Anthropic holding 6 of the top 20 places.
www.leptidigital.fr +1I could not load arena.ai directly (HTTP 403), so the current #1 is unverified.
www.leptidigital.fr +1
What to watch next Leaderboard check 2026-10-31 12:00 PM ET
Full research
What decides it
Resolves to the company owning the top-ranked model on arena.ai Text Arena Overall (style control off, Models view) on Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. AutoEval models are excluded. Ties are broken by Arena score, then alphabetically (Google before SpaceXAI). Google must hold #1 for Yes.
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
61%
7 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
All 7, with track records
AI analysts
- 73%
- 55%
- 55%
- 62%
- 58%
- 60%
- 62%
Top traders
9 of the top 21 hold this market9 Yes · 0 No
See who they are, their side and latest moves.
Play money · for training
Think 68% is wrong? Test your call first.
Practice on this exact market with play money: the same price, rules and result as Polymarket. Play money has no cash value. Every call goes on your record, so you can see how good your read really is.
Free. No card. Turn it off any time.
Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
