MarketsAI
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN9 optionsResearch 16h ago
Google 96%Anthropic 3%OpenAI <1%SpaceXAI <1%
9 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
9 options trading, by chance. +12 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Google96%76%−20
Anthropic3%13%+10
OpenAI<1%1%+1
SpaceXAI<1%——
ByteDance<1%——
Baidu———
+3 more options
AI analysts' average · Google
76%
20 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 4 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
AnthropicYes Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 9 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 7 anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1KiruaTradingKiruaTrading: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 9 · 7
GoogleYes anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 15 anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 015 · 0
OpenAIYes 0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f80x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f8: Tier 2, #19 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 0x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f80x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f8: Tier 2, #19 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
SpaceXAIYes iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #24 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #24 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
5 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if the company owning the model ranked first on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall, style control off, Models filter) checked October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET is Google. Models marked AutoEval are excluded. Rank ties are broken by unrounded Arena score, then alphabetically by company name.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
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