Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Resolved4 levels open2 closedResearch 2d ago
March 31, 2027 22%December 31, 2026 10%November 30, 2026 3%November 15, 2026 <1%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
4 levels openin level order
2 closed levels
4 open levels, in level order. +2 more on Polymarket
The calls
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · November 6, 2026
1 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 787 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Public, on your forecaster record, beside the price now.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Rules
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- In plain English
- November 6, 2026's market resolves Yes if Marco Rubio ceases to be U.S. Secretary of State for any period between market creation and November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and otherwise No. An announcement of his resignation or removal by that date resolves it Yes at once, even if the departure takes effect later. Official information from Rubio and the U.S. government decides, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Watch out
- An announcement of Rubio's resignation or removal by the end date (11:59 PM ET) resolves November 6, 2026 to Yes immediately, even if the departure takes effect later.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marco Rubio ceases to be U.S. Secretary of State for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Marco Rubio's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Marco Rubio and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.