MarketsGeopolitics
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN1 level openResearch 13d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? 2%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
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OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hBuy
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OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Yes 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC66100xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No eCasheCash: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC66100xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20x955c…990f0x955c…990f: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 5 eCasheCash: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1tjatja: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 3 · 5
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls ('Arrivals of Ships') of 60 or more for any date from market creation through November 30, 2026. Otherwise No. The market resolves as soon as such a value is published. Revisions made within the period count, but they cannot disqualify a value already published.
- Watch out
- Only the IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average of transit calls counts, and it must be 60 or more for any date up to November 30, 2026. Other sources' ship counts do not count.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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