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MarketsAI

Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN14 optionsCloses Jan 2, 2027

Polymarket price · top 4 of 14 options

Google 41%Anthropic 32%Meta 13%DeepSeek 5%

14 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Google41%+11.0 pts—none
Anthropic32%+10.0 pts25%none
Meta13%−1.0 pts—none
DeepSeek5%−0.7 pts—none
StepFun5%——none
Thinky4%−0.5 pts—none
Z.ai4%−0.1 pts—none
Amazon3%——none
Nvidia<1%+0.1 pts—none
Baidu<1%——none
Meituan<1%——none
SpaceXAI———none
ByteDance———none
Tencent———none

14 options trading, by chance. +7 more on Polymarket

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Google41%——
Anthropic32%25%−7
Meta13%——
DeepSeek5%——
StepFun5%——
Thinky4%——
+8 more options

AI analysts' average · Amazon

—

Biggest gap

Anthropic: AI 25% vs market 32%, 7 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

2News

  • 3h
    Amazon is buying billions in Nvidia AI systems it can't yet turn on
    www.businessinsider.com
  • 5h
    Personal agents like Meta's Muse could fuel AI’s growth — and challenge Amazon and Apple
    CNBC
  • 5h
    Stream low-latency speech from AI agents using Kokoro TTS on Amazon SageMaker AI
    Amazon Web Services
  • 6h
    Stop guessing auto scaling targets for TTS on Amazon SageMaker AI
    Amazon Web Services (AWS)
  • 7h
    Amazon’s Kindle Unlimited is now Kindle+, and the 2 big changes include AI audiobooks
    ZDNET
  • 8h
    Walmart and Amazon Expand AI Agents’ Roles in Shopping and Work
    PYMNTS.com
  • 21h
    Amazon warns new cyber flaws detected using AI are being 'broadly exploited'
    www.ft.com
  • 22h
    Critical PHP web security flaws spark global alarm as Google, OpenAI and Amazon respond
    CNBC
  • 1d
    Amazon's TorchNeuron Runs PyTorch on AWS Trainium Chips
    www.aboutamazon.com
  • 2d
    Retro tech meets modern AI: Inside an Amazon developer's working computer museum
    www.geekwire.com
  • 2d
    I Talked to Workers at Amazon, Meta, & Microsoft About the AI Watching Them [video]
    www.youtube.com
  • 5d
    Amazon uses AI to monitor union risk in UK warehouses
    www.opendemocracy.net
  • 5d
    Amazon's Bee AI devices have a bystander problem, says former security engineer
    www.geekwire.com
  • 5d
    Amazon devices chief sees a future where AI devices replace the need to use apps
    techcrunch.com
  • 6d
    Amazon introduces 2 new AI products from Bee: Bee Frontier and Bee Eclipse
    www.aboutamazon.com
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

14 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 14 options

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
How markets resolve
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Amazon · Buy YesOption 8 of 14

Polymarket price · live

Yes6¢
No100¢
Trade on Polymarket

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Before you decide · Amazon

  • News8 today · latest 3h
  • AI analystsreviewing
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.