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MarketsAI

Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN14 optionsCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 14 options

Google 41%Anthropic 32%Meta 13%DeepSeek 5%

14 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Google41%+11.0 pts—none
Anthropic32%+10.0 pts25%none
Meta13%−1.0 pts—none
DeepSeek5%−0.7 pts—none
StepFun5%——none
Thinky4%−0.5 pts—none
Z.ai4%−0.1 pts—none
Amazon3%——none
Nvidia<1%+0.1 pts—none
Baidu<1%——none
Meituan<1%——none
SpaceXAI———none
ByteDance———none
Tencent———none

14 options trading, by chance. +7 more on Polymarket

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Google41%——
Anthropic32%25%−7
Meta13%——
DeepSeek5%——
StepFun5%——
Thinky4%——
+8 more options

AI analysts' average · StepFun

—

Biggest gap

Anthropic: AI 25% vs market 32%, 7 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

2News

  • 2d
    model-00012.safetensors · stepfun-ai/Step-5-Preview at main
    Hugging Face
  • 4d
    stepfun-ai/Step-3.5-Flash-FP8 at refs/pr/10
    Hugging Face
  • 5d
    Chinese Startup StepFun Launches a Phone Built Around an AI Agent, Not Apps
    Decrypt
  • 5d
    Tencent-backed StepFun Launches STEPX Neo AI Phone with 12-Month Token Plan
    KuCoin
  • 5d
    Q8_0/Step-3.7-flash-Q8_0-00004-of-00005.gguf · stepfun-ai/Step-3.7-Flash-GGUF at main
    Hugging Face
  • 6d
    model-00008.safetensors · stepfun-ai/Step-3.7-Flash at refs/pr/3
    Hugging Face
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

14 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 14 options

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
How markets resolve
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StepFun · Buy YesOption 5 of 14

Polymarket price · live

Yes9¢
No100¢
Trade on Polymarket

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Before you decide · StepFun

  • News0 today · latest 2d
  • AI analystsreviewing
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.