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MarketsAI

#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN18 optionsCloses Nov 2, 2026Research 3h ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 18 options

Meta 50%Anthropic 44%Alibaba 2%Google 1%

18 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Meta50%−9.6 pts58%2 · 1
Anthropic44%+13.5 pts38%4 · 1
Alibaba2%−1.8 pts2%0 · 1
Google1%−0.4 pts1%1 · 1
OpenAI1%—6%0 · 1
Z.ai1%—2%none
DeepSeek<1%+0.1 pts1%none
Baidu<1%—1%none
Tencent<1%—1%none
ByteDance<1%−0.1 pts1%none
Xiaomi<1%−0.2 pts1%none
Thinky<1%—1%none
Meituan<1%—1%none
Amazon<1%—1%none
Mistral<1%—1%none
Nvidia———none
StepFun———none
Microsoft———none

18 options trading, by chance. +3 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 3h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Meta50%58%+8
Anthropic44%38%−6
Alibaba2%2%0
Google1%1%0
OpenAI1%6%+5
Z.ai1%2%+1
+12 more options

AI analysts' average · DeepSeek

1%

level with the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Meta: AI 58% vs market 50%, 8 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

  • 5h
    DeepSeek plans to raise $15b in new funding round to boost model training, computing power: report
    Global Times
  • 5h
    DeepSeek just raised $15 billion to take on OpenAI and Anthropic
    www.bloomberg.com
  • 5h
    US orders removal of China DeepSeek AI over national security concerns
    aninews.in
  • 5h
    DHS Orders Agencies to Remove DeepSeek AI from Government Systems
    FEDagent
  • 5h
    DeepSeek Raises $15 Billion Two Days After US Orders Agencies to Remove Its AI
    Northeast Times
  • 6h
    Tencent Backs DeepSeek's Nearly $15 Billion AI Raise
    Yahoo Finance
  • 7h
    Will the next DeepSeek model be called DeepSeek v4.2?
    manifold.markets
  • 7h
    ‘Jensen’s nightmare’: Huawei, DeepSeek narrow AI chip ecosystem gap with Nvidia
    South China Morning Post
  • 8h
    DeepSeek Transcript Puts Continual Learning at Center of AI Research
    econotimes.com
  • 9h
    China’s AI leader DeepSeek raises $15B
    Semafor
  • 9h
    Chinese AI Startup DeepSeek Raises $15 Billion Ahead of Potential IPO
    WSJ
  • 10h
    US bans federal agencies from buying DeepSeek AI products
    Computing UK
  • 10h
    DeepSeek Raises $15 Billion To Scale and Challenge OpenAI and Anthropic Dominance
    Ventureburn
  • 13h
    Tencent and CATL back DeepSeek's $15B funding round to challenge top US AI labs: report
    TradingView
  • 14h
    DeepSeek Nears $15 Billion Fundraise to Fuel AI Race
    StratNews Global
  • 16h
    DeepSeek wrapping up $15 billion fundraising to fuel AI race, sources say
    Reuters
  • 17h
    China DeepSeek raises $15 billion to challenge top US AI labs
    thehindubusinessline.com
  • 23h
    Just the Docs: DHS Discloses July Order Stripping DeepSeek AI from Federal Civilian IT Systems
    Just Security
  • 1d
    Deepseek AI Predicts That Chainlink (LINK) is About to do Something Huge
    TradingView
  • 1d
    DeepSeek ban forces US firms to rethink using Chinese AI, experts say
    South China Morning Post
  • 1d
    China protests the US Deepseek ban while blocking ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini at home
    The Decoder
  • 1d
    5 things to know about Chinese AI startup DeepSeek
    vanguardngr.com
  • 1d
    DeepSeek Wants Better AI at Lower Cost · TechNode
    technode.com
  • 1d
    Get ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and DeepSeek in one window for $59.97 for life
    PCWorld
  • 1d
    DeepSeek seeks ‘total victory’ with new open-source tool to slash AI cost
    South China Morning Post
  • 1d
    DeepSeek Open-Sources Framework Behind Its High-Margin AI Inference
    The Information
  • 1d
    DeepSeek Unveils Open-Source Tool to Help Cut AI Operating Costs
    www.bloomberg.com
  • 1d
    US bans DeepSeek across federal agencies, putting AI supply chains under scrutiny
    CIO
  • 1d
    DeepSeek open-sources DeepInfer, the inference framework behind its production services
    SiliconANGLE
  • 1d
    US bans use of China DeepSeek AI in federal agencies , cites security concerns
    americanbazaaronline.com
  • 1d
    DeepSeek makes DeepInfer open source to cut AI costs
    TechTarget
  • 1d
    China Criticizes U.S. Ban on DeepSeek A.I. in Government Systems
    The New York Times
  • 2d
    U.S. government bans Chinese AI app DeepSeek from federal IT systems
    upi
  • 2d
    DeepSeek Open Sources Inference Tech to Lower AI Costs
    PYMNTS.com
  • 2d
    China - Based DeepSeek AI Products Banned From Use By Government , Contractors
    ibtimes.com
  • 2d
    DeepSeek AI tools banned from US government agency systems as rift with China grows
    TechRadar
  • 2d
    DeepSeek Faster Flash Model , Anthropic Bug - Hunting Scanner , and DeepMind Blunt Reminder : The AI Bottleneck Is Us – The Cherry Creek News
    thecherrycreeknews.com
  • 2d
    Latest open artifacts (#25): DeepSeek v4.1 Flash 1017, American-made models
    www.interconnects.ai
  • 2d
    DeepSeek Dials Up the Pressure on OpenAI and Anthropic With Open - Source Inference Tool
    gizmodo.com
  • 2d
    DeepSeek open-sources the inference engine behind its API. And Huawei gets equal billing with Nvidia.
    The New Stack
  • 2d
    DHS Bans DeepSeek, but Replacing Model Won’t Erase Its History
    Bloomberg Law News
  • 2d
    DeepSeek open-sources DeepInfer software for running its AI models
    Quartz
  • 2d
    US orders federal agencies to remove China DeepSeek AI from their systems
    techcrunch.com
  • 2d
    U.S. Government Bans DeepSeek AI and Orders Federal Agencies to Remove All Related Tools
    CyberSecurityNews
  • 2d
    China defends DeepSeek after US ban of its AI from government systems
    AP News
  • 2d
    DeepInfer: High-performance inference framework for DeepSeek models
    github.com
  • 2d
    FASCSA Orders Require Exclusion and Removal of DeepSeek AI
    Crowell & Moring LLP
  • 2d
    US bans DeepSeek AI from government use as tech tension with China continues
    www.bbc.com
  • 2d
    DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash-1017 arrives with improved benchmarks just as the U.S. government bans it from agencies — what enterprises should do
    VentureBeat
  • 2d
    US banning Chinese AI DeepSeek from government agency IT systems
    www.reuters.com
  • 3d
    DeepSeek v4.1 Flash 1017 beats larger models in agentic tasks while cutting cost
    the-decoder.com
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 3h ago
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
Anthropic54 · 1
Meta32 · 1
Google21 · 1
Alibaba10 · 1
OpenAI10 · 1

13 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 18 options

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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DeepSeek · Buy YesOption 7 of 18

Polymarket price · live

Yes1¢
No100¢
Trade on Polymarket

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Before you decide · DeepSeek

  • News18 today · latest 5h
  • AI analysts1% · level
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.