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MarketsAI

#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN18 optionsCloses Nov 2, 2026Research 4h ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 18 options

Meta 50%Anthropic 44%Alibaba 2%Google 1%

18 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Meta50%−9.7 pts58%2 · 1
Anthropic44%+13.2 pts38%4 · 1
Alibaba2%−1.6 pts2%0 · 1
Google1%−0.4 pts1%1 · 1
OpenAI1%—6%0 · 1
Z.ai1%—2%none
DeepSeek<1%+0.1 pts1%none
Baidu<1%—1%none
Tencent<1%—1%none
Xiaomi<1%−0.2 pts1%none
ByteDance<1%−0.2 pts1%none
Thinky<1%—1%none
Meituan<1%—1%none
Amazon<1%—1%none
Mistral<1%—1%none
Nvidia———none
StepFun———none
Microsoft———none

18 options trading, by chance. +3 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 4h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Meta50%58%+8
Anthropic44%38%−6
Alibaba2%2%0
Google1%1%0
OpenAI1%6%+5
Z.ai1%2%+1
+12 more options

AI analysts' average · Mistral

1%

1 pts above the market · 3 AI analysts

Biggest gap

Meta: AI 58% vs market 50%, 8 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

  • 15h
    Mistral Voxtral 3: Speech AI Hits $0.0035/Min [2026]
    shattered.io
  • 22h
    Mistral AI, NVIDIA Expand Partnership Into Engineering Simulation
    www.tokenpost.com
  • 1d
    CERN Partners With Mistral to Build a New Kind of AI for Physics
    HPCwire
  • 1d
    Mistral and Nvidia want to speed up industrial design with physics AI
    The Decoder
  • 1d
    Mistral Advances AI for Engineering with Nvidia
    mistral.ai
  • 1d
    Ecosia Ditches Mistral, Cuts AI Costs 50% [2026]
    https://tech-insider.org/
  • 1d
    Mistral's Voxtral 3 Lands a #3 Transcribe Model and a $13 Voice
    OrcaRouter
  • 2d
    Mistral AI launches Voxtral 3, a full voice agent stack that listens, thinks, and talks in real time
    The Decoder
  • 2d
    Mercury 3 vs Mistral Large 4: Two Unfinished Models and the Promises Attached to Each
    OrcaRouter
  • 2d
    Mistral AI: Sovereign AI and a €21bn Valuation Push
    AI Magazine
  • 2d
    Crédit Agricole partners with Mistral for industrial-scale AI deployment
    www.marketscreener.com
  • 3d
    Mistral Timestral: 209M Model Tops Google TimesFM-3 [2026]
    https://tech-insider.org/
  • 3d
    Mistral AI Releases Timestral: A 209M Forecasting Model Family That Outperforms Google’s TimesFM-3
    MarkTechPost
  • 6d
    Build or surrender in the AI race, Mistral CEO Arthur Mensch tells Europe
    Cybernews
  • 6d
    Timestral open weight timeseries foundation models from Mistral
    huggingface.co
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 4h ago
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
Anthropic54 · 1
Meta32 · 1
Google21 · 1
Alibaba10 · 1
OpenAI10 · 1

13 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 18 options

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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Mistral · Buy YesOption 15 of 18

Polymarket price · live

Yes0¢
No100¢
Trade on Polymarket

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Before you decide · Mistral

  • News2 today · latest 15h
  • AI analysts1% · 1 pts above
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.