MarketsSports
Who will attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN17 levels openResearch 3m ago
Michael Owen 61%David Beckham 58%Michael Olise 46%Vincent Kompany 43%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
17 levels open · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
17 open levels, in level order. +12 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Lionel Messi30%38%+8
Cristiano Ronaldo2%3%+1
Lamine Yamal99%92%−7
Kylian Mbappé94%73%−21
Harry Kane98%95%−3
Ousmane Dembélé95%91%−4
+11 more options
AI analysts' average · Fabián Ruiz
9%
2 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 233 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
14 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to be held in London on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, attending the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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