How do I trade on "Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN11 levels openCloses Jan 1, 2027Research 2h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Susie Wiles 38%Pete Hegseth 25%Markwayne Mullin 22%Kash Patel 17%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

11 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Susie Wiles38%—25%—

Pete Hegseth25%−0.5 pts21%—

Markwayne Mullin22%—12%—

Kash Patel17%+4.5 pts15%—

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.14%−1.0 pts10%—

Howard Lutnick13%−2.0 pts11%—

Lee Zeldin9%−2.0 pts8%—

Stephen Miller9%−4.0 pts7%—

John Ratcliffe8%−1.5 pts6%—

David Sacks7%−1.0 pts15%—

Scott Bessent6%+0.5 pts5%—

11 options trading, by chance. +5 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 2h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Susie Wiles38%25%−13

Pete Hegseth25%21%−4

Markwayne Mullin22%12%−10

Kash Patel17%15%−2

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.14%10%−4

Howard Lutnick13%11%−2

+5 more options

AI analysts' average · Howard Lutnick

11%

2 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Susie Wiles: AI 25% vs market 38%, 13 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 11 options

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN11 levels openCloses Jan 1, 2027Research 2h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Susie Wiles 38%Pete Hegseth 25%Markwayne Mullin 22%Kash Patel 17%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

11 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Susie Wiles38%—25%—

Pete Hegseth25%−0.5 pts21%—

Markwayne Mullin22%—12%—

Kash Patel17%+4.5 pts15%—

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.14%−1.0 pts10%—

Howard Lutnick13%−2.0 pts11%—

Lee Zeldin9%−2.0 pts8%—

Stephen Miller9%−4.0 pts7%—

John Ratcliffe8%−1.5 pts6%—

David Sacks7%−1.0 pts15%—

Scott Bessent6%+0.5 pts5%—

11 options trading, by chance. +5 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 2h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Susie Wiles38%25%−13

Pete Hegseth25%21%−4

Markwayne Mullin22%12%−10

Kash Patel17%15%−2

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.14%10%−4

Howard Lutnick13%11%−2

+5 more options

AI analysts' average · Howard Lutnick

11%

2 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Susie Wiles: AI 25% vs market 38%, 13 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 11 options

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

1AI analysts

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 11 options

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Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

1AI analysts

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 11 options

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AI analysts

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