How do I trade on "Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN5 levels openCloses Jan 1, 2027Research 2d ago

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Above 4.5% 16%Above 5% 8%Above 8% 4%Above 6% 4%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

5 levels open

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Above 4.5%16%+0.5 pts20%none

Above 5%8%——none

Above 6%4%———

Above 10%2%−0.1 pts——

Above 8%4%+0.3 pts—none

5 options trading.

AI analysts

1 AI analyst · each gives every option a chance · updated 2d ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Above 4.5%16%20%+4

Above 5%8%——

Above 6%4%——

Above 10%2%——

Above 8%4%——

AI analysts' average · Above 6%

—

Your forecast on Above 6%

Public, on your forecaster record, beside the price now.

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

News

No headlines about this market in the last 7 days.

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

3 options: no ranked trader holds them

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

Resolves Yes if any official monthly BLS CPI news release reports a 12-month CPI increase for a month in 2026 strictly above the threshold in Above 6%, using the release's one-decimal precision; otherwise No. No resolution must await the December 2026 report; revisions after its issuance do not count, and if it is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, resolution uses BLS figures already available.Show rulesHide rules

In plain English: Resolves Yes if any official monthly BLS CPI news release reports a 12-month CPI increase for a month in 2026 strictly above the threshold in Above 6%, using the release's one-decimal precision; otherwise No. No resolution must await the December 2026 report; revisions after its issuance do not count, and if it is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, resolution uses BLS figures already available.
Watch out: The reported one-decimal CPI increase must be greater than the threshold in Above 6%; equality does not count. No cannot resolve until the December 2026 report, subject to the January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET fallback.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

How markets resolve