MarketsPolitics
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN13 levels open
Susie Wiles 36%Pete Hegseth 25%Markwayne Mullin 23%Kash Patel 18%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
13 levels open · by chance
OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
13 options trading, by chance. +3 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Susie Wiles36%28%−8
Pete Hegseth25%21%−4
Markwayne Mullin23%11%−12
Kash Patel18%15%−3
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.14%10%−4
Howard Lutnick13%11%−2
+7 more options
AI analysts' average · Kristi Noem
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Biggest gap
Markwayne Mullin: AI 11% vs market 23%, 12 pts below
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
News
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Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
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