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MarketsTech

Largest Company end of October 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN9 optionsCloses Nov 2, 2026Research 1d ago

Polymarket chance · top 4 of 9 options

NVIDIA 80%Apple 20%Alphabet <1%Microsoft <1%

9 options · by chance

OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
NVIDIA80%−6.7 pts83%3 · 2
Apple20%+6.7 pts7%3 · 0
Alphabet<1%+0.1 pts1%none
Microsoft<1%—1%none
Tesla———0 · 1
Saudi Aramco———none
Broadcom———none
Amazon———none
SpaceX———none

9 options trading, by chance.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1d ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
NVIDIA80%83%+3
Apple20%7%−13
Alphabet<1%1%+1
Microsoft<1%1%+1
Tesla———
Saudi Aramco———
+3 more options

AI analysts' average · Microsoft

1%

1 pts above the market · 4 AI analysts

Track record

Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 4 level, 0 price closer, on 166–231 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

2News

  • 3h
    UnternehmerTUM Microsoft Infineon NVIDIA
    Bisinfotech
  • 8h
    Microsoft develops AI tool that can diagnose 'sequentially' like a doctor
    Reuters
  • 9h
    Microsoft links agentic AI to ConnectWise supply chain breach
    SC Media
  • 12h
    Microsoft (MSFT) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Know
    Yahoo Finance
  • 12h
    Microsoft Says Its New AI Is More Than Twice as Good at Diagnosing Diseases as Doctors
    Gizmodo
  • 13h
    Microsoft Contact Center Intelligence Takes Aim at CCaaS AI
    The Futurum Group
  • 13h
    Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) Takes On Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) With Debt, Stock Sales, And Customer Prepayments In AI Infrastructure Battle
    Foreign Policy Journal
  • 14h
    Microsoft Diagnostic AI Outperforms Generalist Physicians in Science Study
    Unite.AI
  • 14h
    Nvidia RTX graphics card updates officially eliminate PC gaming stutter as Microsoft cloud shader delivery rolls out
    cristinaiglesias.com
  • 14h
    Microsoft’s Mustafa Suleyman says its AI outperforms doctors on hard cases as he chases ‘medical superintelligence’
    TechCrunch
  • 15h
    Microsoft says its AI tool is better than doctors at diagnosing conditions
    microsoft.ai
  • 15h
    Nvidia Sinks 3% as Wall Street Questions AI Spending Returns at Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon
    FX Leaders
  • 16h
    How much MSFT stock does Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella actually own?
    Yahoo Finance
  • 16h
    Microsoft blames ConnectWise attacks on Chinese state hacker using ARTEX AI agents
    The Record from Recorded Future News
  • 17h
    New Microsoft guidance warns that “trusted” AI agents carry serious security and safety implications
    Windows Central
  • 17h
    Microsoft shares how to fix broken Exchange Online EWS apps
    BleepingComputer
  • 17h
    Microsoft Stock Could Be Closer to Its Next Big Breakout Than Investors Think
    Yahoo Finance
  • 17h
    Microsoft launches AI Supercomputer Infrastructure team, led by networking head
    SDxCentral
  • 17h
    Nvidia driver 621.01 adds Microsoft’s cloud shader precompiling to cut PC game stutter
    eGamers.io
  • 18h
    Nvidia & Microsoft unveil AI agents for Windows PCs
    IT Brief Asia
  • 18h
    PLA Partners with Microsoft on Library AI Info Sessions
    Publishers Weekly
  • 18h
    Infineon, Nvidia and Microsoft promote development of AI robots
    www.marketscreener.com
  • 19h
    Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon Now Make Up 30.8% of VOO and 49.2% of VUG. Here's a Better Low-Cost Vanguard ETF to Buy Now.
    AOL.com
  • 19h
    Boehringer Microsoft partner AI-backed clinical development
    Boehringer Ingelheim
  • 20h
    Infineon Collaborates with Nvidia, Microsoft on AI Startup Accelerator
    www.marketscreener.com
  • 21h
    China-linked hackers used agentic AI in attack on 2,250 Microsoft 365 tenants
    CSO Online
  • 22h
    Oracle Vs. Microsoft: How The Wildcard AI Spender Plans to Disrupt
    Yahoo Finance
  • 22h
    Microsoft is Creating a $700 Billion Moat With Its AI Spend Through 2030
    24/7 Wall St.
  • 22h
    Microsoft: Chinese State Actor Used AI to Compromise ConnectWise Tenants
    Infosecurity Magazine
  • 23h
    Microsoft Stock Is Up 10% This Year. Is It Still a Buy Ahead of Earnings?
    Morningstar
  • 1d
    Microsoft (MSFT) Stock May Be 22% Undervalued After Maia 300 Unveiling
    Yahoo Finance
  • 1d
    Microsoft Warns of Chinese State-Linked Cyberattacks Powered by AI Agent
    The Information
  • 1d
    Ex-Marine and Microsoft vets launch Watchtower Labs with $35M to bring AI to military logistics
    GeekWire
  • 1d
    Oxford partners with Microsoft and Anthropic to support AI startups tackling access to justice
    EdTech Innovation Hub
  • 1d
    AI Research Foundry London launches with Imperial, DeepMind and Microsoft researchers
    EdTech Innovation Hub
  • 1d
    Microsoft Stocks Slip as Volkswagen Scales Copilot to 330,000 Workers
    Yahoo Finance
  • 1d
    MICROSOFT CORP ($MSFT) CEO 2026 Pay Revealed
    Quiver Quantitative
  • 1d
    AI Weekly: Microsoft delivers UK AI blow, Klara hits the big screen
    Reuters
  • 1d
    Boeing, Microsoft Aim AI at Airlines’ $3.1 Billion Repair Bill
    PYMNTS.com
  • 1d
    Microsoft’s $678B AI backlog looks unstoppable, but valuations are stretched
    Investing.com
  • 1d
    Microsoft Reportedly Cutting Specs on Entry-Level 12-Inch Surface, AMD Arm Chip in the Mix
    TechPowerUp
  • 1d
    Opella, Microsoft partner on AI platform for health content review
    MobiHealthNews
  • 1d
    Microsoft stock may move 4.6% on Oct. 28 earnings report
    Investing.com
  • 1d
    4 Ways Farmers Can Use AI to Avoid Falling Behind, According to Microsoft’s Top Ag Expert
    Successful Farming
  • 1d
    Microsoft Must Say This on Oct. 28 or the Stock Will Go Into Free Fall
    Yahoo Finance
  • 1d
    Microsoft and Alphabet opt out of tokenized stocks in latest blow to ambitious plan from OKX and NYSE parent firm
    Fortune
  • 1d
    Microsoft exits UK AI data center project over electricity delays
    Network World
  • 1d
    Meta’s 2 Deadlines, Microsoft’s 60 Agents: DesignRush AI Roundup
    DesignRush
  • 1d
    Nvidia and Microsoft want to kill PC gaming’s shader-stutter nightmare
    PCWorld
  • 1d
    NVIDIA R620 driver branch adds Microsoft Advanced Shader Delivery support to all GeForce RTX GPUs
    VideoCardz.com
  • 1d
    Alphabet Slips 2% Despite NASDAQ Rally as Pichai Says Google Cloud Is Giving Up Revenue for AI Capacity; Amazon Dips, Microsoft Holds Steady
    24/7 Wall St.
  • 1d
    Nvidia vs. Microsoft: Is NVDA’s Explosive Growth Being Undervalued?
    Yahoo Finance
  • 1d
    What Will $5,000 Invested in Microsoft Stock Be Worth in 5 Years?
    24/7 Wall St.
  • 1d
    Merck KGaA to Develop AI-driven Support Model for Rare Tumors in Partnership with Nvidia, Microsoft, Dawn Health
    marketscreener.com
  • 1d
    NVIDIA, Microsoft, Merck KGaA Collaborate on AI Patient Support Model
    marketscreener.com
  • 1d
    Jim Cramer and Ken Fisher’s AI Pick: Microsoft (MSFT)
    Yahoo Finance
  • 1d
    Earnings Preview: What to Expect From Microsoft’s Report
    Barchart.com
  • 1d
    Market Re-Rating Aligns Microsoft Corporation’s (MSFT) Valuation with Core AI Fundamentals
    Yahoo Finance
  • 1d
    What Did It Take To Hold Microsoft Stock?
    Trefis
  • 1d
    Oracle vs. Microsoft: Which Is the Better AI Cloud Stock to Own for the Next 5 Years?
    The Motley Fool
  • 1d
    OpenAI to bring AI models to Google's cloud, in further expansion beyond Microsoft
    CNBC
  • 2d
    Microsoft, Nvidia PC is a Bet on Who Pays for AI and Who Controls It
    CXOToday.com
  • 2d
    Nvidia-Backed Pigment Raises $250 Million to Take on Microsoft
    Bloomberg.com
  • 2d
    The non-gamer CEO racing to save Microsoft’s Xbox
    Fortune
  • 2d
    Microsoft, Alphabet and Goldman Sachs join objections to OKX-ICE tokenized stock trading
    CoinDesk
  • 2d
    Running Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 on Apple Silicon Without Rosetta
    gethighball.com
  • 3d
    I Talked to Workers at Amazon, Meta, & Microsoft About the AI Watching Them [video]
    www.youtube.com
  • 3d
    Microsoft says AI agents are like insider threats as ‘frontier models can’t be trusted’
    TechCrunch
  • 3d
    Microsoft pulls out of UK Nscale data centre deal over power delay
    Reuters
  • 3d
    Microsoft Scraps UK Data Center Deal With Nscale, Telegraph Says
    Bloomberg.com
  • 3d
    Microsoft unveils tools to monitor and corral rogue AI agents
    GeekWire
  • 3d
    News | Microsoft exits major UK data centre project with Nvidia-backed developer
    CoStar
  • 3d
    Microsoft, Nvidia push provenance checks as open-weight AI adoption accelerates
    CSO Online
  • 4d
    Microsoft drops AI datacentre project in Essex over power supply concerns
    www.theguardian.com
  • 4d
    Own VGT? Here's How Much of It Is Really Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and Broadcom.
    The Motley Fool
  • 5d
    Microsoft AI chief says the company beat OpenAI's models, using less compute
    www.businessinsider.com
  • 6d
    Microsoft Surface Laptop Ultra: NVIDIA RTX Spark means business
    Computerworld
  • 6d
    Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella Just Shared Bad News for Nvidia and Great News for This Rival Chipmaker
    The Motley Fool
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 41m ago
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
NVIDIA53 · 2
Apple33 · 0
Tesla10 · 1

6 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 9 options

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
How markets resolve
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Microsoft · Buy YesOption 4 of 9

Polymarket price · live

Yes0¢
No—
Trade on Polymarket

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Before you decide · Microsoft

  • News30 today · latest 3h
  • AI analysts1% · 1 pts above
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.