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Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN128 optionsResearch 2d ago

Polymarket chance · top 4 of 128 options

None 25%IA, KS 12%IA 11%KS 5%

128 options · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
None25%+3.0 pts—3 · 0
IA, KS12%−2.0 pts—2 · 0
IA11%−0.4 pts——
KS5%+1.0 pts——
All 73%+1.4 pts——
ME2%+0.7 pts——
AK, IA, KS1%+0.3 pts——
AK, IA1%−0.1 pts——
IA, OH1%+0.3 pts——
AK1%+0.3 pts——
IA, KS, OH1%——none
IA, KS, TX1%———
OH1%——none
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%−0.5 pts——
IA, KS, ME<1%−0.7 pts——
AK, KS<1%−0.1 pts——
IA, ME<1%−0.1 pts——
IA, TX<1%−0.1 pts——
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%+0.1 pts——
IA, MI<1%−0.1 pts—none
MI<1%−0.1 pts——
TX<1%+0.1 pts—1 · 0
IA, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%−0.2 pts—none
AK, IA, KS, OH<1%−0.1 pts—none
IA, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%+0.1 pts——
KS, OH<1%−0.2 pts——
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%−0.1 pts——
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%−0.1 pts——
AK, IA, KS, ME, TX<1%−0.1 pts——
AK, IA, KS, TX<1%−0.2 pts——
IA, KS, ME, OH<1%−0.3 pts——
IA, KS, ME, TX<1%−0.2 pts——
IA, KS, OH, TX<1%−0.3 pts——
IA, KS, MI<1%−0.2 pts—1 · 0
KS, ME<1%−0.3 pts——
KS, TX<1%−0.1 pts——
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%−0.5 pts——
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH<1%−0.2 pts——
AK, IA, KS, OH, TX<1%−0.2 pts——
AK, KS, TX<1%+0.2 pts—none
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI<1%−0.1 pts——
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH<1%−0.1 pts——
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%−0.2 pts——
AK, IA, OH<1%−0.1 pts——
IA, ME, MI<1%——none
AK, ME<1%——none
AK, IA, KS, ME<1%−0.4 pts——
AK, IA, KS, MI<1%−0.2 pts——
IA, KS, MI, OH<1%+0.3 pts——
IA, KS, MI, TX<1%−0.2 pts—none
AK, IA, TX<1%−0.2 pts——
IA, ME, TX<1%−0.2 pts——
IA, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%−0.7 pts——
AK, IA, OH, TX<1%+0.1 pts——
IA, KS, ME, MI<1%−0.4 pts—none
AK, IA, ME<1%−0.2 pts—none
AK, IA, MI<1%———
AK, KS, ME<1%———
IA, ME, OH<1%−0.2 pts——
IA, MI, OH<1%———
IA, MI, TX<1%———
KS, ME, OH<1%———
KS, ME, TX<1%——none
KS, MI<1%−0.1 pts—none
ME, MI<1%———
IA, OH, TX<1%−0.2 pts——
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%———
AK, IA, KS, MI, TX<1%−0.3 pts——
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH<1%+0.1 pts——
AK, IA, ME, OH, TX<1%———
AK, IA, ME, OH<1%———
AK, IA, ME, TX<1%———
AK, KS, OH, TX<1%+0.1 pts——
IA, ME, OH, TX<1%−0.1 pts—none
AK, KS, OH<1%−0.1 pts—none
KS, ME, MI<1%———
KS, OH, TX<1%−0.1 pts——
AK, OH<1%−0.1 pts——
AK, TX<1%———
ME, OH<1%−0.1 pts——
ME, TX<1%−0.1 pts—none
OH, TX<1%——none
AK, MI<1%——none
AK, OH, TX<1%——none
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%——none
AK, IA, ME, MI, TX<1%———
AK, IA, MI, OH, TX<1%———
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH<1%———
AK, KS, ME, MI, TX<1%———
AK, KS, ME, OH, TX<1%——none
AK, KS, MI, OH, TX<1%———
AK, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%——none
IA, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%−0.1 pts——
KS, ME, MI, OH, TX<1%——none
AK, IA, ME, MI<1%−0.1 pts——
AK, IA, MI, OH<1%——none
AK, IA, MI, TX<1%———
AK, KS, ME, MI<1%——none
AK, KS, ME, OH<1%———
AK, KS, ME, TX<1%———
AK, KS, MI, OH<1%———
AK, KS, MI, TX<1%———
AK, ME, MI, OH<1%———
AK, ME, MI, TX<1%——none
AK, ME, OH, TX<1%———
AK, MI, OH, TX<1%———
IA, ME, MI, OH<1%−0.1 pts——
IA, ME, MI, TX<1%−0.1 pts—none
IA, MI, OH, TX<1%−0.1 pts——
KS, ME, MI, OH<1%———
KS, ME, MI, TX<1%———
KS, ME, OH, TX<1%−0.1 pts——
KS, MI, OH, TX<1%——none
ME, MI, OH, TX<1%———
AK, KS, MI<1%———
AK, ME, MI<1%———
AK, ME, OH<1%———
AK, ME, TX<1%——none
AK, MI, OH<1%———
AK, MI, TX<1%——none
KS, MI, OH<1%−0.1 pts—none
KS, MI, TX<1%−0.1 pts——
ME, MI, OH<1%———
ME, MI, TX<1%———
ME, OH, TX<1%———
MI, OH, TX<1%———
MI, OH<1%−0.1 pts——
MI, TX<1%−0.1 pts——

128 options trading, by chance.

AI analysts

The AI analysts are reviewing this market. Usually within the hour.

News

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Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
NoneYes lava-lava T1 3 lava-lava T1wagwanshawty T2 03 · 0
IA, KSYes BiDiFakePolls T2 2 BiDiFakePolls T2tunatyler T2 02 · 0
TXYes RememberAmalek T21 RememberAmalek T201 · 0
IA, KS, MIYes RememberAmalek T21 RememberAmalek T201 · 0

31 options: no ranked trader holds them

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 128 options

Show rulesHide rules
In plain English
Resolves Yes if KS, ME is exactly the set of Republican wins among the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas Senate general elections scheduled for November 3, 2026, including potential runoffs; otherwise No, with 'None' meaning zero Republican wins and 'All 7' meaning wins in all seven states. Republican status requires Republican ballot affiliation or nomination and excludes independents regardless of affiliation; another candidate's victory or results undetermined by March 31, 2027 count as a Republican non-win, and resolution follows conclusive consen…
Watch out
A state whose results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027 counts as not won by the Republican candidate when matching the exact set KS, ME.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
How markets resolve
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