How do I trade on "Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN4 levels openCloses Jul 2, 2027Research 2h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

1400+ 94%1420+ 82%1440+ 60%1460+ 21%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

4 levels open · in level order

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

1400+94%+1.1 pts92%0 · 4

1420+82%−3.0 pts70%0 · 4

1440+60%−11.5 pts57%2 · 4

1460+21%+9.0 pts22%1 · 2

4 open levels, in level order. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 2h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

1400+94%92%−2

1420+82%70%−12

1440+60%57%−3

1460+21%22%+1

AI analysts' average · 1420+

70%

12 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts

Biggest gap

1420+: AI 70% vs market 82%, 12 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's AI release traders by 3-month profit · updated 2h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

1440+62 · 4

1400+40 · 4

1420+40 · 4

1460+31 · 2

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 4 options

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Haiku model (4.6+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Haiku" and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Haiku 4.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Haiku 5, while models whose name does not include "Haiku" or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as Claude Haiku 4.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN4 levels openCloses Jul 2, 2027Research 2h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

1400+ 94%1420+ 82%1440+ 60%1460+ 21%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

4 levels open · in level order

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

1400+94%+1.1 pts92%0 · 4

1420+82%−3.0 pts70%0 · 4

1440+60%−11.5 pts57%2 · 4

1460+21%+9.0 pts22%1 · 2

4 open levels, in level order. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 2h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

1400+94%92%−2

1420+82%70%−12

1440+60%57%−3

1460+21%22%+1

AI analysts' average · 1420+

70%

12 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts

Biggest gap

1420+: AI 70% vs market 82%, 12 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's AI release traders by 3-month profit · updated 2h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

1440+62 · 4

1400+40 · 4

1420+40 · 4

1460+31 · 2

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 4 options

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Haiku model (4.6+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Haiku" and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Haiku 4.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Haiku 5, while models whose name does not include "Haiku" or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as Claude Haiku 4.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?

1AI analysts

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

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Next Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?

1AI analysts

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Related Markets

AI analysts

AI analysts