MarketsAI
Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN9 optionsResearch 7h ago
Xiaomi 83%Moonshot 12%Alibaba 4%Baidu <1%
9 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
9 options trading, by chance. +2 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Xiaomi83%80%−3
Moonshot12%12%0
Alibaba4%5%+1
Baidu<1%2%+2
Z.ai<1%3%+3
MiniMax<1%2%+2
+3 more options
AI analysts' average · Xiaomi
80%
3 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 313 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
XiaomiYes 8dcc906a9b8dcc906a9b: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 6 8dcc906a9b8dcc906a9b: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C110xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C11: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 06 · 0
AlibabaYes Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No 8dcc906a9b8dcc906a9b: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 4 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 8dcc906a9b8dcc906a9b: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1MilksheenMilksheen: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 4 · 2
MoonshotYes 8dcc906a9b8dcc906a9b: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No HerrieDavisHerrieDavis: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 8dcc906a9b8dcc906a9b: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 HerrieDavisHerrieDavis: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 3 · 2
Z.aiYes SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 · 0
5 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Resolves Yes for Xiaomi if, on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard, the best-ranked model from a primarily Chinese company belongs to Xiaomi. The check is on October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The table is https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None), filtered for 'Models'. Models marked 'AutoEval' are ignored. Ties on rank go to the higher underlying Arena score. A remaining tie goes to alphabetical order of company names. Otherwise it resolves No.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Sign in to comment
