MarketsAI
Claude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN4 levels openResearch 3d ago
$40+ 94%$50+ 55%$60+ 15%$75+ 3%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
4 levels open · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
4 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
$40+94%93%−1
$50+55%64%+9
$60+15%8%−7
$75+3%3%0
AI analysts' average · $50+
64%
9 pts above the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 4 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
$50+Yes Hannah-MontanaHannah-Montana: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T14 Hannah-MontanaHannah-Montana: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T14 · 1
$40+Yes KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
$60+No lamyklamyk: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 lamyklamyk: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 2
$75+No KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- $50+ resolves Yes if Anthropic's next qualifying model, with 'Fable' in its name and version 5.2 or higher (including Claude Fable 6), debuts at a standard 'Base tokens' output price at or above the option's amount per million tokens. The price is for default global inference without a long-context surcharge, and an introductory price counts. Batch, fast mode, cached and US-only prices don't count. If several qualifying models debut the same day, the highest price applies. It resolves No if no …
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Fable model (5.2+) debuts at a standard output token price of at least the specified price, in USD per million tokens. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. The debut price is the “Base tokens” output price for default global inference, at the rate that does not trigger a long-context surcharge, announced by Anthropic or listed on its official API pricing page when the model is first made available to the general public. An introductory price qualifies. Batch, fast mode, cached, US-only inference, and other data-residency prices do not qualify. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies. If no qualifying model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, including its official API pricing page (https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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