How do I trade on "Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN6 levels openCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 17h ago

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

42%+ 65%45%+ 64%50%+ 44%55%+ 20%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

6 levels open · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

42%+65%+2.0 pts50%none

50%+44%+9.5 pts32%0 · 2

45%+64%+1.9 pts43%0 · 3

55%+20%−1.5 pts10%1 · 2

60%+14%−1.0 pts10%0 · 1

65%+5%+0.1 pts5%none

6 open levels, in level order.

AI analysts

4 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 17h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

42%+65%50%−15

50%+44%32%−12

45%+64%43%−21

55%+20%10%−10

60%+14%10%−4

65%+5%5%0

AI analysts' average · 50%+

32%

12 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts

Track record

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

News

No headlines about this market in the last 7 days.

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Polymarket's AI traders by 3-month profit · updated 1d ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

45%+No iutwpfal T1 03 iutwpfal T1Stonktrader T2 0 · 3

55%+Yes HerrieDavis T2 No iutwpfal T1 1 HerrieDavis T22 iutwpfal T1dedidanc T2 1 · 2

50%+No iutwpfal T1 02 iutwpfal T1dedidanc T2 0 · 2

60%+No iutwpfal T101 iutwpfal T10 · 1

2 options: no ranked trader holds them

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 6 options

Show rulesHide rules

In plain English: 50%+ resolves Yes if any SpaceXAI Grok model reaches at least the stated HLE Accuracy (not calibration error) on the official Humanity's Last Exam leaderboard at agi.safe.ai by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves No.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".

How markets resolve