How do I trade on "Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN4 levels open1 closedCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 1d ago

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

50%+ 24%55%+ 11%60%+ 7%65%+ 5%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

4 levels open · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

50%+24%−0.5 pts33%0 · 4

55%+11%—8%1 · 1

60%+7%−0.5 pts5%0 · 1

65%+5%−0.4 pts4%0 · 1

1 closed level

45%+>99%+0.5 pts85%—

4 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket

AI analysts

4 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1d ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

50%+24%33%+9

55%+11%8%−3

60%+7%5%−2

65%+5%4%−1

AI analysts' average · 50%+

33%

9 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst

Track record

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

News

3d
Moonshot's Kimi K3.1 Pro flirts with open weights leadership amid paid influencer scandal allegations
VentureBeat

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's AI traders by 3-month profit · updated 22h ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

50%+No lamyk T2 04 lamyk T2molodoyy T2 0 · 4

55%+Yes iutwpfal T1 No dedidanc T21 iutwpfal T11 dedidanc T21 · 1

60%+No dedidanc T201 dedidanc T20 · 1

65%+No dedidanc T201 dedidanc T20 · 1

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

Resolves Yes if any Moonshot Kimi model has an accuracy of at least 50%+ on Humanity's Last Exam, using the value labeled 'HLE Accuracy' (or a clear equivalent) on the official leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/, at any time up to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise No. If agi.safe.ai is unavailable after the deadline or permanently, other official HLE results may be used. If there is no official alternative, the market resolves No.Show rulesHide rules

In plain English: Resolves Yes if any Moonshot Kimi model has an accuracy of at least 50%+ on Humanity's Last Exam, using the value labeled 'HLE Accuracy' (or a clear equivalent) on the official leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/, at any time up to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise No. If agi.safe.ai is unavailable after the deadline or permanently, other official HLE results may be used. If there is no official alternative, the market resolves No.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".

How markets resolve