MarketsPolitics
Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Event finished15 optionsResearch 5h ago
Together 49%Joint List 38%Yisrael Beiteinu 2%United Torah Judaism <1%
15 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
15 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Together49%48%−1
Joint List38%3%−35
Yisrael Beiteinu2%1%−1
United Torah Judaism<1%——
Otzma Yehudit<1%4%+3
Likud<1%4%+4
+9 more options
AI analysts' average · Together
48%
1 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 0 level, 1 price closer, on 358 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
TogetherNo anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 05 anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1lava-lavalava-lava: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 0 · 5
Joint ListYes mr.ozimr.ozi: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No BiDiFakePollsBiDiFakePolls: Tier 2, #15 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 mr.ozimr.ozi: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935: Tier 2, #42 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 BiDiFakePollsBiDiFakePolls: Tier 2, #15 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 · 1
The DemocratsNo anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
12 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Together resolves Yes if its party or coalition wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Knesset in the Israeli election scheduled for October 27, 2026. Ties on seats are broken by total valid votes (higher ranks higher), then alphabetically by name. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'. Resolution is by a consensus of credible reporting, or the official Central Elections Committee results if there is ambiguity.
- Watch out
- Rank is by Knesset seats won, with ties broken by total valid votes and then alphabetical order; exit polls do not count, and an undefined result by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET resolves to 'Other'.
- Resolution criteria
- Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
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