MarketsWorld
Next French Presidential Election
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN45 optionsResearch 12h ago
Marine Le Pen 43%Édouard Philippe 18%David Lisnard 16%Jean-Luc Mélenchon 12%
45 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
45 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Marine Le Pen43%40%−3
Édouard Philippe18%17%−1
David Lisnard16%7%−9
Jean-Luc Mélenchon12%7%−5
Raphaël Glucksmann4%5%+1
François Hollande1%2%+1
+39 more options
AI analysts' average · Marine Le Pen
40%
3 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 0 level, 1 price closer, on 358 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Marine Le PenYes lava-lavalava-lava: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 5 lava-lavalava-lava: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1tunatylertunatyler: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 05 · 0
Raphaël GlucksmannYes lava-lavalava-lava: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 4 lava-lavalava-lava: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1BurstedBubbleBurstedBubble: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 04 · 0
Jordan BardellaYes CoffeeDespiserCoffeeDespiser: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 4 CoffeeDespiserCoffeeDespiser: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2BurstedBubbleBurstedBubble: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 04 · 0
Édouard PhilippeYes lava-lavalava-lava: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 lava-lavalava-lava: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1CoffeeDespiserCoffeeDespiser: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 03 · 0
Bruno RetailleauYes CoffeeDespiserCoffeeDespiser: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 3 CoffeeDespiserCoffeeDespiser: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2BurstedBubbleBurstedBubble: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 03 · 0
David LisnardNo mountaindewdmountaindewd: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 mountaindewdmountaindewd: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Jean-Luc MélenchonNo GohstGohst: Tier 2, #27 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 GohstGohst: Tier 2, #27 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
François HollandeYes D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935: Tier 2, #42 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935: Tier 2, #42 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Éric ZemmourYes CoffeeDespiserCoffeeDespiser: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 CoffeeDespiserCoffeeDespiser: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Gabriel AttalYes BurstedBubbleBurstedBubble: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 BurstedBubbleBurstedBubble: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Sarah KnafoYes CoffeeLoverCoffeeLover: Tier 2, #46 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 CoffeeLoverCoffeeLover: Tier 2, #46 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Christine LagardeYes D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935: Tier 2, #42 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935: Tier 2, #42 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
François RuffinYes BurstedBubbleBurstedBubble: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 BurstedBubbleBurstedBubble: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Marine TondelierYes CoffeeDespiserCoffeeDespiser: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 CoffeeDespiserCoffeeDespiser: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Sébastien LecornuYes CoffeeDespiserCoffeeDespiser: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 CoffeeDespiserCoffeeDespiser: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Olivier FaureYes BurstedBubbleBurstedBubble: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 BurstedBubbleBurstedBubble: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Jean CastexYes CoffeeDespiserCoffeeDespiser: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 CoffeeDespiserCoffeeDespiser: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Bernard CazeneuveYes D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935: Tier 2, #42 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935: Tier 2, #42 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Laurent WauquiezYes CoffeeDespiserCoffeeDespiser: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 CoffeeDespiserCoffeeDespiser: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
26 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Marine Le Pen resolves Yes if Marine Le Pen wins the next French presidential election, including any second round, as shown by a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, the official results from the Ministry of the Interior decide. It resolves No if anyone else wins. If the result is not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other', so every named candidate resolves No. The election is expected around April 2027, and trading ends Apr 19, 2027, 03:59 UTC. An earlier election would count.
- Resolution criteria
- The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
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