MarketsAI
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN3 levels openResearch 4d ago
December 31 23%November 30 8%October 31 2%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
3 levels open · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
3 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
October 312%4%+2
November 308%8%0
December 3123%18%−5
AI analysts' average · December 31
18%
5 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 313 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
October 31Yes troimtroim: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 troimtroim: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1ilovehistaminesilovehistamines: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 7 SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1lamyklamyk: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 · 7
November 30No Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 03 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1JokerTheClownJokerTheClown: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 3
December 31No Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 03 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1JokerTheClownJokerTheClown: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 3
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if Google's next Gemini model labeled 'Pro' (or a GA release of an existing preview Pro) becomes publicly accessible between market creation and the option date (October 31, November 30 or December 31, 2026, ET). Closed beta or private access does not count. Flash and other non-Pro models do not count. Google's official information is the primary source.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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