MarketsAI
Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN4 options3 closedResearch 5d ago
No release by October 31 92%October 30 4%October 31 <1%October 28 <1%
4 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
3 closed options
4 open levels, in level order. +9 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
October 28<1%1%+1
October 304%1%−3
October 31<1%1%0
No release by October 3192%91%−1
AI analysts' average · No release by October 31
91%
1 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 4 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
No release by October 31Yes KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2xiaojirenxiaojiren: Tier 2, #45 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 3 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f80x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f8: Tier 2, #16 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 · 3
October 28Yes molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No dedidancdedidanc: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 dedidancdedidanc: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 · 1
October 31No dedidancdedidanc: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 dedidancdedidanc: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
1 option: no ranked trader holds it
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Resolves Yes for No release by October 31 if Meta's next model named 'Muse Spark' and designated version 1.4 or higher (including Muse Spark 2) is launched and open to the general public on that calendar date (ET). Open beta or open rolling waitlist signups count; closed beta or private access does not. Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026), Muse Glimmer and Muse Image do not qualify. The 'No release by October 31' option resolves Yes if no qualifying model is public by the market's close…
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sign in to comment
