MarketsAI
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN6 optionsResearch 3d ago
5+ >99%4 <1%2 <1%3 <1%
6 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
6 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
<1———
1<1%1%+1
2<1%1%+1
3<1%1%+1
4<1%2%+1
5+>99%71%−28
AI analysts' average · 5+
71%
28 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 4 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
4Yes gambler925gambler925: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No dedidancdedidanc: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 gambler925gambler925: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 dedidancdedidanc: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 · 1
5+Yes gambler925gambler925: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 gambler925gambler925: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C110xA2770432A5E6Bd24c347c976b0D815db1f2C11: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 · 0
1No dedidancdedidanc: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 dedidancdedidanc: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
3No dedidancdedidanc: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 dedidancdedidanc: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
2 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- 5+ resolves Yes if the number of October 2026 calendar days (ET) on which status.openai.com shows a red 'Partial/Full Outage' box for ChatGPT matches the option's count. Only incidents listing ChatGPT as an affected component count. Days are finalized once the next day's box is added.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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